“There is a problem with the actual numbers, that is, we have to start from the principle that most of the numbers we have been working with do not reflect the real reality, either due to the system's inability to collect them or a lack of comparability between them,” Pedro Góis, scientific director of the OM, told Lusa.

He gave an example: “the numbers of social security contributions are not the same numbers that appear in the Bank of Portugal's tables.”

“They are quite divergent numbers,” which “have to do with the inclusion criteria” in each database, and the information is not harmonised, he explained.

The conclusions of the Agency for Integration, Migration and Asylum (AIMA) point to 1.5 million foreigners residing in Portugal by the end of 2024, based on granted residence permits, but Pedro Góis prefers to wait for the National Institute of Statistics' assessment to be certain about the numbers.

“The INE is carrying out this statistical assessment and rebalancing based on the same indicators in other countries,” using international standards, explained Pedro Góis.

“We will have to be patient because the AIMA figures arrived late,” taking into account the process of dissolving the Foreigners and Borders Service (SEF), the increase in expressions of interest, and visas from Portuguese-speaking countries.

All of this affected the quality of the numbers, he acknowledged, although stressing that AIMA only counts residence permits, even though many of these foreigners may no longer live in Portugal, information that only the INE can verify.

“We are talking about weeks or a few months” until INE produces its data and “we will be certain that the statistical series has not been broken” and it will be possible “to compare 2025 with 2015, for example,” because the criteria will be the same.

AIMA “collects interactions and not necessarily a sequential number of processes,” explained Pedro Góis in his speech, who said he preferred not to comment on the public figures.

“We don’t want to transmit information that we are not entirely certain of,” said the official, summarizing: “the administrative data is from AIMA, the statistical data on the foreign resident population in Portugal is from INE.”

Mónica Isfan, from OM, explained the new data collection dashboard that will allow for the harmonization of statistical information on immigrants, highlighting that collaboration protocols are already being established.

According to the OM technician, issues such as “irregular migration, circular mobility, or informal work remain poorly observed” in the statistical databases.

In his view, the observatory should "be seen in a role of scientific curation of migratory information, promoting the harmonization and systematization of this information," by making "comparative readings of all available data."