"For 2026, ACIP's [Association of Trade in the Bread, Pastry and Similar Products Industry] outlook is cautiously optimistic. Stability in international flour, energy and logistics markets creates favourable conditions for a year without major fluctuations," said the president of the association's board, Deborah Barbosa, in response to Lusa.

However, ACIP anticipates "a slight increase" in the price of bread and pastries, driven by the impacts of labour revisions and price increases for eggs, dried fruit, and cardboard.

This could also be compounded by the impact of the possible withdrawal of state support for fuels, it warned.

According to data from Deco - the Portuguese Association for Consumer Protection, sent to Lusa, on January 1, 2025, half a dozen eggs cost €1.61, but on November 19, the same carton was already at €2.12, representing an increase of 31.68%.

The price of eggs has remained stable since October 22, when it reached a peak of €2.12. The lowest price was reached at the beginning of the year (€1.61) and remained so until the 29th of the same month.

According to ACIP, the sector should focus on "consolidation, productive efficiency, and strengthening differentiation," factors that ACIP considers essential to achieving sustainable margins and meeting customer expectations.

Deborah Barbosa also stated that preliminary data for the current year shows an alignment of confectionery and bakery prices with inflation, after years of strong cost volatility and low consumption.

"The sector is showing moderate evolution, with contained but positive growth, supported by the normalization of raw material prices and more predictable consumer behaviour. Although there are still many pressures in terms of labour and essential services, 2025 shows an environment of greater operational balance," she said.