The National Statistics Institute (INE) released the results of its Resident Population Projections exercise between 2024 and 2100 and concluded that by the turn of the next century, there will be far fewer people living in Portugal: 8.3 million inhabitants, with more elderly people and far fewer children and young people.

Portugal will lose population, falling from the current 10.7 to 8.3 million people, with the number of young people up to 15 years old decreasing from 1.4 to less than one million and the number of elderly people decreasing from 2.6 to 3.1 million, according to a central projection scenario.

The researchers also outlined a scenario in which they imagine an increase in average life expectancy, among other factors, in which case the elderly population could reach 4.2 million.

What is certain is that all scenarios depict a country with fewer and fewer young people and more and more elderly people. The ageing index—which compares the population aged 65 and over and includes children up to 15 years old—could increase substantially by 2100, from the current 192 to 316 elderly people for every 100 young people.

Hidden realities

However, the national figure hides regional realities, such as the Azores and Madeira islands and the northern region, which could see very high imbalances between the younger and older populations.

The most curious case is that of the Autonomous Region of the Azores, currently considered the least aged region in the country, with only 128 elderly people per 100 young people. However, by 2100, it will be the third oldest, with "405 elderly people per 100 young people."

Last year, the Central region was the oldest region in the country, but scenarios now outlined by experts indicate that by 2100, the title will go to the North region, where the ageing rate will increase from the current 205 elderly people to 475.

In Madeira, the aging rate is expected to skyrocket from the current 179 elderly people to 442 per 100 children by 2100, according to INE projections, which point to the Algarve as the future least elderly region.

The researchers emphasise that these projections took into account migration balances and more positive fertility rates, which have helped to mitigate the pace of population aging but have not stopped it.

"The ageing rate in Portugal will gradually increase until 2060, when it will tend to stabilize," writes the INE, admitting that at the beginning of the 22nd century, there will be much fewer people of working age (4.2 million), which will lead to a worsening of the elderly dependency ratio, to almost double the current level.

Currently, there are 39 elderly people for every 100 people of working age, but by 2100, in a central scenario, there will be 73 elderly people for every 100 people of working age.